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  • Nov 2nd, 2005
  • Comments Off on US Treasuries higher, awaiting Fed moot
US Treasury debt prices edged higher on Monday as investors grew wary of making any bets on the eve of a Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point, but analysts were keen to parse the tone of its policy statement before determining what the future might hold for government bonds.

The market proved remarkably resilient to a barrage of bond-negative data, including a pick-up in core inflation and a jump in Chicago-area business activity.

But that was mostly a testament to just how far yields had risen. Last week brought the biggest one-week spike in yields in more than six months.

Benchmark 10-year notes ticked up 2/32 for a yield of 4.56 percent, down from 4.57 percent on Friday.

All in all, bonds appeared to be regaining their footing after last week's heavy sell-off.

Treasuries were fluttering in a new, higher range in yields between 4.53 percent and 4.60 percent, but analysts said it would take a series of truly bearish events for the market to break that ceiling.

"There's a sense that the market is a bit overdone and we're at some good support levels," said David Ging, fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.

Two-year notes were flat and yielding 4.39 percent, while five-year notes rose 1/32 to yield 4.45 percent. The 30-year bond added 7/32 for a yield of 4.75 percent.

The market's ability to withstand the jump in Chicago regional factory activity indicated a weariness among bears, dealers said.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 62.9 in October from 60.5 in September. Economists had forecast a drop to 58.0.

Improvements took place across the board, with employment and new orders also rising robustly. The prices paid measure rose to 79.6 from 76.3, but that did not seem to rattle a bond market that some described as "oversold."

On an year-on-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.0 percent year-on-year, above a third-quarter estimate of 1.9 percent contained in Friday's gross domestic product report and at the top of the Fed's presumed comfort range.

That number was part of a broader report on spending and income, which showed that the bulk of new consumption in September went toward higher gasoline prices.

Overall spending climbed 0.5 percent, but fell 0.4 percent when adjusted for inflation.

Incomes shot up 1.7 percent, but mostly because of insurance payouts that increased at a $120 billion annual rate in the wake of recent hurricanes.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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